The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) publishes quarterly figures for passenger numbers by Train Operating Company (TOC) at https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/ , and it’s fascinating to look at the changes since before the pandemic.
The working hypothesis is that commuter operators, especially into London, will have shown the biggest decline with more leisure-oriented InterCity operations performing better, but there are enormous variations.
Between the 2018/19 and 2023/24 financial years, the ‘stars’ are the InterCity open access operators, Hull Trains and Grand Central, with growth of 40% and 20% respectively. LNER has also grown, by 8%; in contrast Avanti’s passenger numbers have fallen by 17%. LNER’s performance is extraordinary given the level of competition on the route, even more intense since Lumo joined the fray on London–Newcastle/Edinburgh in 2021.
East Midlands, a hybrid TOC with regional as well as InterCity routes, is also doing well, with 8% growth, albeit significantly inflated as East Midlands is now a big player in the London-Luton Airport/Luton/Bedford market, operating a fast half-hourly service all day, so a big part of its growth will have come at the expense of Thameslink.
Most London & South East TOCs have lost heavily, ranging from a dismal 30% for Southeastern, which has always had a higher than average proportion of commuters, to 18% for Govia. The exceptions are London Overground – with a loss of 4% – and Greater Anglia at 10%. London Overground is the supreme example of agglomeration benefits, providing direct links across the capital which would be much more difficult by any other mode, so widening employment benefits and driving economic growth: what HS2 was supposed to deliver but more affordably and successfully!
Greater Anglia is another hybrid TOC, including heavy commuter flows into London, Stansted Express, the InterCity service to Norwich and a clutch of branch lines in East Anglia. There’s no immediately obvious reason for its high passenger numbers, although this may be the result of its excellent operational performance and entirely new, high quality trains.
Performance of regional TOCs varies between a 22% loss on Transport for Wales to only 8% on Merseyrail, which should be doing even better now as it has a brand new fleet of trains with level boarding throughout its network
Passenger numbers are of course only part of the picture. London and South East TOCs have haemorrhaged season ticket revenue although, as season ticket prices are discounted in relation to the all day fare, the yield impact is probably not clear-cut. The big revenue hit for InterCity operators is reduced business travel. Teams and Zoom have massively substituted face-to-face meetings, with this trend dramatically accelerated by the pandemic. However, here again, anecdotal observation suggests that LNER is doing much better for premium traffic than other routes: First Class on LNER is still busy.
In contrast, Avanti, is underperforming. Its First Class load factors appear to be poor, despite First Class accommodation having been reduced in recent years from four coaches to two, with one vehicle being converted to Standard Class and another now specified as Standard Premium, with a first class seating configuration but no complementary at-seat service. The difference in passenger numbers between LNER and Avanti probably reflects pricing policy and, presumably, one of the two TOCs has got it right in terms of overall revenue. I suspect it’s LNER; in any case, other things being equal, it’s surely better to carry more passengers!
Leaving aside open access operators, ownership appears to be irrelevant. Public sector LNER outperforms private sector Avanti and private sector Greater Anglia is way ahead of public sector Southeastern. The markets served, operational performance and pricing policy are probably the key factors.
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Like smart motorways, Euston has had a very bad press. The station is certainly architecturally undistinguished, comparing poorly with, for example, St. Pancras or Liverpool Street. But Euston has a large, open concourse in contrast to some other London terminals not cluttered by retail outlets, which were removed some years ago. There are three large, clear departure indicators, together with two more in the area immediately outside the station – quite a pleasant place to wait if it’s a dry sunny day! There is also another board showing the next departure to a comprehensive range of stations.
Nevertheless, there are safety concerns, which mainly centre on the mad dash down the ramp to the platforms, particularly when there is disruption and two trainloads of passengers are racing to get a seat. This is principally a Euston phenomenon; at most other London termini, any stampede for a train is moderated by a barrier line directly leading from the concourse, so the passenger flow to the platforms is manageable.
However, helped by Network Rail’s extraordinarily inept handling of one of Systra’s staff who had the temerity to formally raise safety concerns and was ultimately sacked for his pains, the station has become a cause celebre. One journalist even wrote that Euston is “easily the worst main station in Western Europe”; perhaps he should get out more, starting with a trip on Eurostar to Gare du Nord in Paris?
One of the actions following this furore has been to darken the massive advertising display which replaced the previous departure and arrivals board, although it’s not clear how that will have improved safety at the station. Network Rail should perhaps consider whether the barrier lines might be repositioned next to the concourse, as at Waterloo and Paddington.
Although I think the safety aspect has perhaps been overplayed – so far as I’m aware there have been few if any serious injuries related to crowding – there is, nevertheless, much to criticise about the station, for example:
- Access from the Underground has been deliberately made less convenient. There is a glass wall between the main line station and the Underground entrance and passengers have to go out of the station and come back in again. Easier access may raise safety concerns but, if and when there is dangerous overcrowding, this could be managed by having a moveable partition.
- Unaccountably, there is only one, small arrivals indicator positioned to help Assisted Travel staff meet arriving passengers. Shouldn’t everyone be permitted to know where to meet their friends and relatives?
And the lack of a direct connection to the east end of Euston Square underground station remains a scandal. It was pouring with rain a few days ago when, along with a steady stream of people, many of whom were lugging cases, I made the trek along Euston Road. The Metropolitan Railway was opened in 1863, yet this still hasn’t been resolved.
Photo credit: Paul Bigland.
